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- Ethanol Market Update - 9/4/25
September 5, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol production held steady today at ~402,000 MMBTU, maintaining a utilization rate of 71%. Plant-level swings remain visible, but the overall fleet is operating broadly in line with the 7-day average (~403k MMBTU).
Futures continued their firm tone, with the CU curve showing strong backwardation into Q4. September settled at $2.0525, with Q4 averaging $1.86, a 22.25¢ premium over Q1, underscoring expectations of tighter balances into year-end.
Daily Production: ~402,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~403,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 71%
Q4/Q1 Spread: +22.25¢
Market Insight
The prompt rally continues to drive spreads wider across both futures and cash. Sep/Oct at +5¢ and Oct/Nov at +15¢ reflect the tightening balance sheet as blending demand holds firm.
Cash markets followed: Argo Sep closed $2.0275, while NYH Sep settled at $2.0945, keeping its ~10¢ premium to CU.
Our EIA production estimate for 9/5 remains 1.100M b/d, steady against the last forecast, following last week’s actual of 1.072M b/d. Adjustment factors remain the wildcard.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/5
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0525 | Sep/Oct: +0.0500 |
Oct | 2.0025 | Oct/Nov: +0.1500 |
Nov | 1.8525 | Nov/Dec: +0.1250 |
Dec | 1.7275 | Dec/Jan: +0.0850 |
Jan | 1.6425 | Jan/Feb: +0.0150 |
Feb | 1.6275 | Feb/Mar: –0.0150 |
Mar | 1.6425 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175 |
Apr | 1.6600 | Apr/May: –0.0125 |
May | 1.6725 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6800 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6800 | – |
Key Curves
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8600
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6375
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6700
1H Avg: 1.6550
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2225
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0325
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.1725 | +0.1200 |
Oct | 2.1325 | +0.1300 |
Nov | 1.9775 | +0.1250 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0275 | Sep/Oct: +0.1000 |
Oct | 1.9275 | Oct/Nov: +0.1375 |
Nov | 1.7900 | Nov/Dec: +0.1050 |
Dec | 1.6850 | Dec/Jan: +0.0500 |
Jan | 1.6350 | Jan/Feb: +0.0000 |
Feb | 1.6350 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.6525 | Mar/Apr: –0.0150 |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0945 | Sep/Oct: –0.0605 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 2.1550 | Oct/Nov: +0.0425 | +0.1025 |
Nov | 2.1125 | Nov/Dec: +0.1500 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.9625 | Dec/Jan: +0.1250 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.8375 | Jan/Feb: +0.0850 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7525 | Feb/Mar: +0.0150 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7375 | Mar/Apr: –0.0150 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7525 | Apr/May: –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7700 | May/Jun: –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7825 | Jun/Jul: –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.7900 | Jul/Aug: +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Aug | 1.6800 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.1625 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0500 |
Oct | 2.1125 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1500 |
Nov | 1.9625 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.1250 |
Dec | 1.8375 | +0.1100 | Dec/Jan: +0.0850 |
Jan | 1.7525 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
TWS: 2.095
NWS: 2.125
Sep: 2.0525
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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