- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 9/5/25
September 5, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol futures softened slightly into the weekend, though the CU curve remains steeply backwardated. September settled at $2.0325, while Q4 averaged $1.835, maintaining a 21¢ premium to Q1.
Production continues to stabilize near 400k MMBTU daily, with utilization holding at 71%.
Daily Production: ~401,500 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~402,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 71%
Largest Increase: Highwater Ethanol
Largest Decrease: Green Plains – Atkinson
Market Insight
Spreads remain wide: Sep/Oct +5.25¢, Oct/Nov +15.5¢, Nov/Dec +12.5¢.
Cash strength holds: Argo Sep printed $2.0075, while NYH Sep posted $2.0945, both keeping ~10¢ premiums to CU.
Forward curves: Q4–Q1 spread sits at +20.75¢, the widest since July, highlighting concerns around late-year availability.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/5
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0325 | +0.0525 |
Oct | 1.9800 | +0.1550 |
Nov | 1.8250 | +0.1250 |
Dec | 1.7000 | +0.0750 |
Jan | 1.6250 | +0.0050 |
Feb | 1.6200 | –0.0150 |
Mar | 1.6350 | –0.0175 |
Apr | 1.6525 | –0.0125 |
May | 1.6650 | –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6725 | +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6725 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8350
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6275
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6625
1H Avg: 1.6450
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2075
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0350
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.1500 | +0.1175 |
Oct | 2.1050 | +0.1250 |
Nov | 1.9500 | +0.1250 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0075 | +0.1050 |
Oct | 1.9025 | +0.1400 |
Nov | 1.7625 | +0.1000 |
Dec | 1.6625 | +0.0400 |
Jan | 1.6225 | –0.0050 |
Feb | 1.6275 | –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.6450 | –0.0150 |
Prompt: 2.0420
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0945 | –0.0405 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 2.1350 | +0.0450 | +0.1025 |
Nov | 2.0900 | +0.1550 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.9350 | +0.1250 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.8100 | +0.0750 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7350 | +0.0050 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7300 | –0.0150 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7450 | –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7625 | –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7750 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.7825 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.1425 | +0.1100 | +0.0525 |
Oct | 2.0900 | +0.1100 | +0.1550 |
Nov | 1.9350 | +0.1100 | +0.1250 |
Dec | 1.8100 | +0.1100 | +0.0750 |
Jan | 1.7350 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
TWS: 2.075
NWS: 2.105
Sep: 2.0325
Technicals
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