Ethanol Market Update - 9/8/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures opened the week on a firmer note, with the CU contract stabilizing just above $2.00. September settled at $2.025, while Q4 averaged $1.8175, keeping a 20.75¢ premium over Q1.

Production remained steady near 401,000 MMBTU, keeping utilization at 71%, while plant-level shifts were led by POET Gowrie (largest gain) and Marquis Energy – Illinois (largest drop).

• Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~402,500 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Gain: POET Biorefining – Gowrie

• Largest Drop: Marquis Energy – Illinois

Market Insight

Backwardation remains entrenched across the CU curve, with Oct/Nov at +15.5¢ and Nov/Dec at +13¢. The Q4/Q1 spread at +20.75¢ highlights tightening late-year balances amid consistent blending demand and moderate export flows.

Cash values mirrored the futures tone:

• Argo Sept: $1.995 (+10.75¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sept: $2.0945 (~10¢ over CU)

• ITT Sept: $2.135, holding ~11¢ premium

Regional prompt R11 posted $2.04 TWS / $2.07 NWS, confirming firm basis support.

(will have EIA estimate later today have to adjust model)

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/8

Ethanol CU Contract

Key Curves

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8175

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6100

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6450

• 1H Avg: 1.6275

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2075

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0350

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1425 (+0.1175)

• Oct: 2.0900 (+0.1250)

• Nov: 1.9350 (+0.1250)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 2.0100

• Sep: 1.9950 (Sep/Oct: +0.1075)

• Oct: 1.8875 (Oct/Nov: +0.1425)

• Nov: 1.7450 (Nov/Dec: +0.1025)

• Dec: 1.6425 (Dec/Jan: +0.0375)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.0945 (–0.033 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: 2.1275 (+0.0525, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: 2.0750 (+0.1550, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: 1.9200 (+0.1300, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.1350 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0600

• Oct: 2.0750 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1550

• Nov: 1.9200 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1300

• Dec: 1.7900 (+0.1100) | Dec/Jan: +0.0725

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 2.04

• NWS: 2.07

• Sep: 2.025

Technicals

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