Ethanol Market Update - 9/9/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures eased slightly, though backwardation across the CU curve remains pronounced. September settled at $2.02, with Q4 averaging $1.8175, holding a 20.75¢ premium to Q1.
Production remains stable near ~401k MMBTU, keeping utilization at ~71%.

EIA ESTIMATE: 1100kbd

Production Overview

• Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~402,250 MMBTU

• 2-Year Avg: ~388,000 MMBTU

• Utilization Rate: 71%

Futures & Curves

Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads

• Sep: $2.0200 | Sep/Oct: +0.0600

• Oct: $1.9600 | Oct/Nov: +0.1500

• Nov: $1.8100 | Nov/Dec: +0.1300

• Dec: $1.6800 | Dec/Jan: +0.0725

• Jan: $1.6075 | Jan/Feb: +0.0050

• Feb: $1.6025 | Feb/Mar: –0.0150

• Mar: $1.6175 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175

• Apr: $1.6350 | Apr/May: –0.0150

• May: $1.6500 | May/Jun: –0.0075

• Jun: $1.6575 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000

• Jul: $1.6575

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): $1.8175

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): $1.6100

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): $1.6475

• 1H Avg: $1.6300

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2075

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0375

Regional Cash Markets

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: $2.1375 (+0.1175)

• Oct: $2.0850 (+0.1250)

• Nov: $1.9350 (+0.1250)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $2.003

• Sep: $1.9900 | Sep/Oct: +0.1050

• Oct: $1.8850 | Oct/Nov: +0.1400

• Nov: $1.7450 | Nov/Dec: +0.1025

• Dec: $1.6425 | Dec/Jan: +0.0375

NYH Market

• Sep: $2.0945 (–0.028 vs Oct | +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: $2.1225 (+0.0525 | +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: $2.0700 (+0.1500 | +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: $1.9200 (+0.1300 | +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: $2.1300 (+0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0600)

• Oct: $2.0700 (+0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1500)

• Nov: $1.9200 (+0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.1300)

• Dec: $1.7900 (+0.1100 | Dec/Jan: +0.0725)

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $2.035

• NWS: $2.065

• Sep: $2.020

Technicals

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