- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/27/25
August 27, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production moved lower today to 398,216 MMBTU, down –4,095 MMBTU from yesterday. Utilization slipped slightly to 71%. POET Gowrie posted the largest drop, while Big River – Dyersville saw the strongest gain.
Daily Production Change: –4,095 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Big River United Energy – Dyersville
Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Gowrie
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 36
Plants Below Utilization Average: 29
% Below 2-Year Avg.: ~42%
Market Insight
Today’s dip pulls production back below the 400k MMBTU threshold, erasing Tuesday’s modest gains. Utilization has softened but remains within seasonal norms.
Our EIA Production Estimate for tomorrow’s 8/28 report remains 1.099M b/d, unchanged from earlier this week. Recall last week’s print (1.072M b/d) came in –2.7% below our model, so we’re watching the adjustment factor closely this round.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 398,216 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~404,000 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,000 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Big River United Energy – Dyersville
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Gowrie
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/28
Estimate: 1.099M b/d (steady)
Last Week Actual: 1.072M b/d
Last Miss: –2.7% vs estimate
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7850 | Aug/Sep: –0.0500 |
Sep | 1.8350 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.8000 | Oct/Nov: +0.1000 |
Nov | 1.7000 | Nov/Dec: +0.0750 |
Dec | 1.6250 | Dec/Jan: +0.0550 |
Jan | 1.5700 | Jan/Feb: –0.0050 |
Feb | 1.5750 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5950 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6150 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6250 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6325 | Jun/Jul: 0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6325 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.7075
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5800
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6250
1H Avg: 1.6025
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1275
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8975 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.9500 | +0.1150 |
Oct | 1.9125 | +0.1125 |
Nov | 1.8125 | +0.1125 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.8350 | – |
Aug | 1.8100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0075 |
Sep | 1.8175 | Sep/Oct: +0.0675 |
Oct | 1.7500 | Oct/Nov: +0.0875 |
Nov | 1.6625 | Nov/Dec: +0.0650 |
Dec | 1.5975 | Dec/Jan: +0.0250 |
Jan | 1.5725 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.5850 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6050 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8600 | –0.0775 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.9375 | +0.0275 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.9100 | +0.1000 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8100 | +0.0750 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7350 | +0.0550 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6800 | –0.0050 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6850 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7050 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7250 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7350 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7425 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6325 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8950 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0500 |
Sep | 1.9450 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.9100 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1000 |
Nov | 1.8100 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0750 |
Dec | 1.7350 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.8450 |
NWS | 1.8750 |
Aug | 1.7850 |
Technicals
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The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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