Ethanol Market Update May 12, 2025

Ethanol production advanced modestly today, building on Friday’s slight recovery. Plant-level dynamics continue to show a rotation of marginal supply with key facilities ramping up output, while others trim back amid volatile margins.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 402,391

   

• Daily Production Change: +1,483 MMBTU

   

• Largest Increase in Production: Patriot Renewable Fuels – Annawan

   

• Largest Decrease in Production: Ringneck Energy

   

• Overall Plant Utilization: 69%

   

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 42

   

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 23

   

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 35%

   

Market Insight

Today’s production growth reflects incremental recoveries from the Midwestern facilities, particularly Ringneck Energy, offsetting curtailments elsewhere. While aggregate volumes rose, the supply response remains cautious with operators navigating tighter margins and elevated corn basis.

Key narrative shift: The move back toward 69% utilization is constructive, but with 35% of plants still running below their 2-year average, sustained recovery will depend on margin stabilization and improved plant profitability into late May.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

• Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
   ◦ Patriot Renewable Fuels – Annawan (+2,200 MMBTU)

   

• Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
   ◦ Ringneck Energy (–4,016 MMBTU)

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish near term; higher aggregate output weighs on RIN values, though logistical tightness in the eastern Corn Belt may limit downside.

   

• Logistics Watch: Continue monitoring margins for eastern Iowa and western Illinois plants; localized supply constraints remain possible despite broader recovery.

   

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/9/2025:

Estimated Production: 1,017,000 barrels/day (vs. last week’s 1,020,000 b/d actual)

Technicals

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